An analysis of the top 5 consumer and economic reports and what they teach us about reaching consumers during end-of-year sales.
We took a look at some of the biggest surveys of the year to understand how shopping is changing and what brands can do to position themselves to win more business.
One message rings loud and clear across sources: Inflation and tariffs are increasing costs and economic uncertainty along with them. Holiday spend is only expected to rise modestly this year as consumers tighten their budgets, while e-commerce is set to grow ~7–9%. Businesses can tap into this potential by coordinating the customer journey around key moments and channels.
Here’s what to know, and how to prepare.
Holiday 2025: Top trends
Consumers are cautious but still intent on celebrating. Across McKinsey & Company, Wunderkind, Mastercard, PwC, and Deloitte, a consistent picture emerges: shoppers are stretching budgets, starting earlier, and gravitating to channels and products that make value obvious and buying easy.
- Value first, trade-downs common. Price is top-of-mind. Many plan to buy fewer non-essentials, switch to cheaper alternatives, and time purchases around discounts.
- Earlier start, shorter peak. A big share—especially Millennials—begin shopping in October. With Thanksgiving late this year, promos will start earlier, and early December will see an extra online lift.
- Digital leads, hybrid persists. E-commerce growth outpaces stores again (with about half shopping mostly online), yet most journeys remain online + in-store.
- Practical gifting rises. Essentials and gift cards top lists (PwC, Mastercard Economics Institute, McKinsey & Company), and “useful” gifts outperform purely discretionary items.
- Deal-seeking gets savvier. Shoppers compare across sites, read reviews, sign up for emails, and even “wait for” abandoned-cart incentives while younger cohorts lean on coupon apps, browser tools, and AI.
- Generational splits matter. Gen Z reports the sharpest cutbacks and discovers via social/AI; Millennials shop earliest; higher-income cohorts remain more resilient.
- Service expectations stay high. When assistance is needed, phone and live chat are still the go-to support channels (PwC).
- Macro outlook = modest growth. Overall holiday sales are expected to rise slightly, with online sales up ~7–9% and total retail (less auto) growing 3.6% (MEI).
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power.” - Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader
In short: expect digitally led, comparison-heavy shopping that starts early, peaks over Cyber Week.
Brevo’s holiday playbook: How to drive conversions the whole season
Design your plan around how customers actually shop: early research, Deal hunting peaks, post-holiday redemptions. Each phase below includes goals and actions for crushing the 2025 season.
Phase 0: September - Strategize
Define your segments and strategy. Having a clear idea of who you want to reach and how will help you structure your campaigns, from website promotion to email marketing.
The best place you can start is last year's data. Which segments did you target, and to what success? Planning a strategy around what you learned will make this year even stronger. It's always helpful to go off of what's measurable in your CRM and ecommerce data, such as the examples below.
Priority segments and actions
- VIPs → Invite them to early deals, show offers based on personalized AI recommendations. Use push/SMS to notify them of the start of sales (24 hours before), countdowns, end of sale approaching. Send wallet pass holders scannable barcodes for in-store redemption and sale notifications.
- New customers → Welcome via email, show best sellers, invite to follow social accounts, and share social proof. Use email to communicate start of sale/end of sale approaching.
- Engaged existing customers → Send pre-sale and informative campaigns via email, show them offers using personalized AI recommendations. Use push/SMS to notify them of the start of sales (24 hours before), countdowns, end of sale approaching.
- Less engaged customers → Skip the campaigns, reach out to them based on triggers (abandoned carts, product restocks if requested, shipping updates).
It’s important to segment, not blast everyone. This will improve engagement metrics and land emails right in front of your customers, and out of spam.
Phase 1 (October): Grow & learn
October is your on-ramp. Big retailers such as Amazon and Target, run mini sales early in October to gain more contacts, see how shoppers behave, and what they like before BFCM.
If more sales isn’t your approach, use this time to preview deals and collect contacts without slashing prices. This way, you’ll have a warmer contact list when November arrives.
Goal: Build audience and insight before the big weeks. Communicate via email and nudge customers towards channels that convert.
Priority segments: New subscribers, high-intent browsers, VIPs.
October timeline
Early October
Clean up contact lists. Send a courtesy “opt out” email to filter out uninterested contacts. This will help keep your engagement metrics high, landing your emails in the inbox for customers who count.
Make sure your sending domain is authenticated (DKIM/DMARC). DKIM and DMARC are email authentication methods that help protect against spam, phishing, and other malicious activity. They also increase the chances that your emails will reach your recipients' inboxes.
Mid October
Start promoting your sale. Show deal previews, outline shipping/returns FAQs, and highlight gift-card promos. If mobile wallet marketing is part of your strategy, include QR code sign-up links in email campaigns.
Set up sign-up forms. Launch sale lists with progressive profiling (category interest, channel preference). Place forms on strategic pages and mention exclusive holiday deals.
Optimize your website for AI search. To maximize AI and search visibility this season, our SEO & Content Director, Numa Rivière de Borderies, recommends:
- Adding structured data (Schema) for Product, Offer, AggregateRating/Review, and FAQ page;
- Answering common questions (delivery options, payment methods, returns) directly in the FAQ;
- Keeping Google/Microsoft Shopping feeds complete and up to date;
- Actively collecting and publishing verified reviews, which are strong signals for both LLMs and shopping surfaces.
“In the case of ecommerce, the most impactful thing you can do short-term is implement a Schema markup (structured data) on your product pages. This means starting top to bottom with the markup for product, offer, review, FAQ. This structure allows AIs to better scrape the information about your products and offers, making your product pages more likely to appear in AI searches.” — Numa Rivière de Borderies, SEO & Content Director @ Brevo
Phase 2 (November through Cyber Monday): Warm & convert
November is about building momentum and driving sales. PwC surveyees expect to spend almost 40% of their budgets during BFCM. Target all of your opted-in contacts.
Goal: Build momentum and capture the BFCM surge. Use email before the big weekend, and leverage push, SMS, or wallet marketing during peak sales to remind shoppers of discounts, final hours, and other time-sensitive updates.
Days to prioritize depending on strategy: Green Friday, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, Giving Tuesday.
Campaign timeline
Mastering your campaign timeline takes time. These dates will help you create urgency while minimizing fatigue. Email is a strong first point of contact, but as inboxes get crowded, including more immediate communications in the mix will help businesses reach customers.
Early November
- Announce your sale dates and tease popular items. Inform VIP’s of any early access benefits.
- Clearly display prominent sale dates, return policy tiles, delivery badges, and reviews front and center.
- Implement live chat on checkout to reduce friction.
Mid-late November
- Remind your audiences of your sale. Grant early access to VIPs, sending access codes via SMS or push.
Black Friday
- Clearly announce the live start of your sale using customers’ preferred channels. Share bestsellers for new contacts and AI recommended products for previous customers in your email content.
- Send reminders to wallet pass holders of their in-store coupons and perks, and bring that foot traffic to your store on the big day.
Cyber Monday
- Promote online-only deals or leftover BF stock with the value up front.
- An optional “final hours” SMS or push notification will help nudge indecisive buyers.
Phase 3 (December): Peak & delivery cutoffs
The holidays are approaching fast, and with them, shipping deadlines. Capture last-minute shoppers with these tips.
Goal: Activate last-minute shoppers and drive late-season revenue.
Moments: Shipping deadlines, Super Saturday (last Saturday before Christmas), Green Monday (last Monday before Christmas).
Priority segments: Last-minute shoppers, gift-card buyers, BOPIS/curbside buyers.
Channels & automations
- Cut-off notifications: Place banners on your website and product pages, and send out emails/SMS informing customers of shopping deadlines for on-time delivery.
- BOPIS flows: Send local inventory alerts to nearby customers. Communicate pickup instructions and store hours to help them coordinate their shopping.
- Gift card push: Approaching shipping deadlines are your opportunity to sell instant gifts such as downloadable content and gift cards.
Phase 4 (January): Redeem & retain
January is about new beginnings. Tap into the sentiment and encourage gift card recipients to start the hobby they’ve always dreamed of.
Goal: Turn redemptions and returns into revenue.
Priority segments: Gift-card holders.
Channels & automations
- Gift-card journeys: Balance reminders and “add-on” recommendations to lift AOV.
- Keep the momentum going: Launch “new-year refresh” collections; invite reviews and UGC.
Takeaways
Consumers this year are changing their shopping behavior, from the way they spend to how they search and purchase items. Customers are more sensitive to price and will switch brands that offer better value.
For businesses, preparing a strategy around behavioral segments and putting value front and center will help them penetrate less loyal audiences and gain new customers.
The following points recap how businesses can remain competitive and flexible.
- Own the journey. Use owned channels to gather behavioral data and orchestrate flexible and adaptive marketing campaigns and triggered scenarios.
- Put value up front. Make offers easy to understand and find, leveraging social media and optimizing for AI search results. Focus on emotional and perceived value, not just a dollar amount.
- Use the full season. Shopping starts as early as October and stretches through January as customers redeem gift cards. Use October to grow your contact list, November to warm it up, and BFCM to go all in. Keep the post-holiday momentum going with cool-down campaigns in January.
To learn how to execute a flawless holiday strategy from planning to profit, visit our Black Friday Playbook.
